The weekly weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado; researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer: Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
Issued Thursday July 3, 2008
The Week in Review
Prime time summer conditions continued over the high peaks of RMNP over the past week. Diurnal temperatures cycles remained nearly constant, with daytime highs near 60 and overnight lows in the 40s at 11 kft. Winds have remained on the low side.
In terms of thunderstorm and lightening risk, last weekend was quite safe, with only shallow to moderately deep cumulus development. However, with the return of higher levels of moisture from the west and east since last Monday, deep afternoon convection induced scattered afternoon storms for the remainder of the week.
In most cases, the critical convective depth deeded to induce heavier downpours, windy outflows, and lightening did not occur prior to the noon time hour. More energetic storms, with heavier showers and increased lightening frequency, occurred on Wed. over the eastern side of the park, where the east-side moist air was convectively tapped.
 The Upcoming Weekend
The large anticyclonic gyre, which has recently dominated the circulation pattern over the southwestern US, will migrate over Colorado over the next couple of days. With this, temperatures will warm, but the threat of afternoon thunderstorms will continue.
On Fri., storms that do form will most likely be east of the Divide after noon. Limited amounts of precipitation are currently forecast with these storms, but gusty downburst winds and lightening are possible. The steering winds for these storms will be from the west.
On Sat., an organized upper–atmospheric weather disturbance will move across the state. With this, an increase in cloudiness, thunderstorm risk, and precipitation probability will move across northern Colorado from west to east during the day. Individual storms within the large scale pattern will move from the southwest to the northeast. Thunderstorm initiation is currently not forecast to occur earlier than noon, but with large scale forcing around an earlier start may be possible. In contrast, if extensive morning cloud coverage occurs, the slowed heating rate could effectively delay the onset of deep convection.
The risk of storms and precipitation is forecast to remain elevated on Sun. during the afternoon over all sections of the park. These will be forced mostly by the local terrain and daytime heating. Initiation of deep convection is forecast after noon, and the storms that do develop will move from west/west-southwest to the east/east-northeast.
The Weather Service temperature and wind forecast for the 13 kft level near Longs Peak over the weekend is as follows:
Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts.
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