The weekly weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, researched and written by professional meteorologist and mountaineer:  Dan "the weather man" Gottas. 

Issued Thursday April 3, 2008

The Week in Review

It was a productive week in terms of new precipitation for the mountains of RMNP. Over the eastern sections of the park, about 1.0 – 1.25 inches of water was added to the snowpack near the 9500 ft level. At higher elevations near the Divide, upwards of 2.0 inches of water equivalence fell in places. The snowpack at Bear Lake remains near average (see plot below), with nearly a month remaining before the climatological peak in snow water equivalency occurs.

Two storm systems, one occurring last weekend and another on Wed./Thurs., produced most of the precipitation over the past week. The moderate southwesterly-westerly winds (gusting in the 30 mph range near treeline) that followed the weekend storm on Mon. acted to form some reactive slabs on lee loaded slopes all along the higher terrain of the Front Range. Temperatures remained below freezing near treeline for most of the week.

The Upcoming Week

More active weather is forecast for the week ahead. A strong westerly storm track will usher in three winter-like storm systems, with each successively tracking further south. The first two systems are forecast to move into the mountains on Sat. evening and Mon. Most of the energy associated with the Sat. system will move through southern Wyoming, however enough moisture and orographic forcing will sag southward to produce some accumulating snow. With a more southern track of the Mon. storm, more dynamical forcing can be expected along with the orographic forcing to produce potentially greater amounts of precipitation. Combined precipitation totals by Tues. are forecast to be near 0.5 inches of water equivalence. The potential exists for up to twice this amount to fall at higher elevations near the Divide. During the time when most of the precipitation is forecast to fall, expect moderate west–northwesterly winds to create drifts and new slabs in the lee of terrain features exposed to the wind.

The third and potentially strongest system is forecast to affect the area on next Wed./Thurs. This system may produce significant snow near and east of the Divide.

Recent model forecasts have been successively further south with the storm position, bringing it eastward from the Four Corners region through southeastern Colorado. Such a track would be favorable for significant east-side snows in RMNP. However, the track and intensity of these types of storm systems (i.e., strong circulations that evolve rapidly east of the mountains in the spring) are not typically handled well by the forecast models this far out in the future. For a situation like this, the detailed and more accurate 1–3 day forecast-model output is the most reliable.

Detailed 7-Day Forecast

NWS Forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak 

The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.  These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time.  In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.

Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links

Weather Observations and Forecasts

The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information.  Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts.