The weekly weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, researched and written by professional meteorologist and mountaineer:  Dan "the weather man" Gottas. 

Issued Thursday February 14, 2008

The Week in Review

Trademark Colorado weather occurred over the past week in the mountains of RMNP, with flip-flop temperature trends, some new snow, and ceaseless winds.  Sun. and Wed. were spring like, as the air warmed above the freezing mark below 10 kft.  In these areas, the snowpack settled 3-5 inches with each warm-up.  Three storms produced new rounds of snowfall which collectively added around an inch of water equivalency to the existing snowpack.  However, the offsetting effect of snowpack settlement during the warm periods has produced a net gain of only 4 inches in the snow depth over the past week at Bear Lake.  While the third storm (today - Thurs.) induced some east-side upslope snow, amounts have been limited to a few inches, as most of the upper-atmospheric forcing has taken a nose dive into Arizona.  Until today, the winds were consistently kicking at a healthy westerly clip all week above treeline (sustained 30 – 40 mph; gusting 50 – 70 mph).  The depth of the current weak easterly flow has decreased throughout the day, and westerly flow will once again become established over the higher terrain on Friday.

                   Last week's hurricane winds making their mark on the high peaks of RMNP, Colorado

The Upcoming Week

Although westerly flow is forecast to once again become established over the mountains on Fri. and Sat., it is expected to be weak.  During this time, the atmosphere will dry out, and temperatures will warm to near 30 F at 10 kft by Sat. afternoon.  By late Sat. afternoon/ early evening, expect moisture to increase and a shift in the winds to shift to northwesterly, as a weather disturbance moves into the area from the northwest.  Some light orographic snows (favoring northwest-facing slopes west and near the Divide), cooling temperatures (teens F near 10 kft), and moderate to strong northwesterly winds will be the flavor of the day on Sun.  If you have one day to play this weekend, Sat. is it weather wise.

The blustery northwesterly flow is forecast to persist through Mon., before a calming and warming pattern occurs on Tues.  On Wed. and Thurs., some orographic snows will develop over the western mountains of CO, as well as over the western ranges of the park.  During this time, winds are forecast to continue in the light to moderate range from the west, and temperatures will be quite mild, with the freezing level near 8-9 kft.

With little new snow and relatively light winds from today’s storm (Thurs.), little in the way of new snow loading has occurred, and thus the avalanche danger has not increased.  Expect continuing stabilization on Fri. and Sat., as temperatures warm and winds remain light.  The avalanche danger will rise on Sun. and Mon., due to increasing winds and some new snow.  Terrain features which are vulnerable to drifting and slab formation under northwesterly flow should be of greatest concern.  However, as warming temperatures, lighter winds, and no appreciable new snow for the remainder of the following week occur, expect more settling and increasing stabilization of the snowpack.

For the way-out future (beyond Thurs. of next week), a change in the pattern may be in the offering.  Weather forecast models are trending towards a westerly storm track, with storms rolling in off the Pacific through California, and on to Colorado.  If such a pattern verifies, expect frequent doses of moisture and relatively mild temperatures.

                             A cow elk tagged and carrying a small cb radio to call in the coming of spring

Detailed 7-Day Forecast

NWS Forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak 

The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak.  These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time.  In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.

Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links

Weather Observations and Forecasts

The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information.  Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts.