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1/31/08 Weather Forecast for RMNP |
The weekly weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, researched and written by professional meteorologist and mountaineer: Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
Issued Thursday January 31, 2007
The Week in Review
After a brief but welcomed warm up this last weekend, weather conditions in the mountains of RMNP have once again become cold and blustery. The wind was at its strongest this last Sat. and Tues., with gusts in the 75 – 100 mph range above treeline. Wind directions varied from southwesterly to west-northwesterly. After the thermometer flirted with the freezing mark near treeline on Sun., temperatures have plummeted back down near 0 F the last few days. Two main periods of precipitation occurred last Fri. and Mon., with a weekly total of 1.0 – 1.5 inches of water equivalence added to the snowpack in the sub-alpine regions throughout the park.
An inch of water typically translates into a foot or more of new snow- breaking trail on 1/26 near the Loch Vale
With the persistence of strong winds, the addition of new snow, and the recurrence of cold temperatures, the avalanche danger has remained considerable. Careful terrain selection remains of utmost importance for safe mountain travel, as extensive slab formation and loading has occurred in most lee- and cross-loaded terrain features that were exposed to the strong southwest through northwest winds of the past week. Instability potential, associated with depth hoar, still exists deeper in the snow pack, and will require a prolonged warm up or an extensively deeper snowpack to become less of an instability threat.
High winds raking the Continental Divide of RMNP on 1/31 w/ Longs Peak, Chiefshead, and Thatchtop rising above the clouds (L-R)
The Upcoming Week
For the upcoming week, continued periods of wind, cold, and snow will affect the mountains of RMNP, as an active northwesterly storm track remains in place across the western states of the US. The weather disturbances associated with this pattern will be moving along at a quick pace, so expect frequent but short-lived events. Over the next five days, 0.50 – 1.00 of water equivalence is forecast to precipitate, with the heavier amounts occurring over the western ranges of the park. Temperatures are expected to remain winter like, with shorter colder periods forecast to occur with the passage of each weather disturbance. Moderate westerly winds are also forecast throughout the week, and will become periodically strong in the post-frontal environment shortly following each disturbance. In addition, local wind accelerations in the lee of the Divide (i.e., higher wind gusts), associated with the mountain-wave effect, will also occur during post-frontal conditions.
As periods of strong westerly winds and new snow occur, expect the avalanche risk to remain considerable in those areas of terrain where slab formation and wind loading occur under westerly flow (e.g., the steeper northeast through southeast facing terrain in the lee of the Divide).
Detailed 7-Day Forecast
The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts.
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