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jluy28weather
The weekend weather forecast for the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Researched and written by professional meteorologist and avid mountaineer, Dan "the weather man" Gottas.
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Wednesday, July 28nd, 2010
Rocky Mountain National Park Weather Forecast
After another two-day reprieve from the afternoon thunderstorm cycle at the end of last week, a moist and unstable weather pattern returned to the Park over the past several days.
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The Week in Review
Last Friday 7/23 proved to be the best weather day for long, high-altitude outings, with absolute moisture levels too low (0.3 – 0.6 cm of integrated water vapor) to support deep convection and thunderstorms.
A surge of moisture returned to the lower east side on Saturday 7/24, but the dry airmass that continued to stream in aloft from the west effectively entrained into and snuffed the moist east-side thermals.
The entire atmospheric column moistened to high enough levels on Sunday to support deep convection and thunderstorms during the afternoon.
The North American Monsoon moisture plume took more direct aim on CO for the remainder of the week. Integrated water vapor values rose to the 1.5 cm mark over the past couple of days near treeline. With this came extensive cloudiness and an increased threat for heavier convective rains during the afternoon and evening hours.
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Blue skies morning following a a stormy night in the portaledge on the Diamond.
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 The last week of weather on the Continental Divide of northern Colorado. |
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The Upcoming Week
The monsoon juice will be on the loose over the next few days.
With vertically integrated water vapor forecast near and above 1.5 cm near treeline, extensive clouds and scattered afternoon convective rains and thunderstorms are probable. The probabilities are also high for heavier rains to accompany the thunderstorms that do form.
Also, the precipitation and lightening risk will occur earlier in the day than usual, so very early starts will be necessary for more committing and exposed adventures to lower the weather-drama factor.
This moist, unstable weather pattern is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend.
Some drying is forecast by Monday 8/2 and into early next week. While the degree of expected drying would not be enough to eliminate the afternoon thunderstorm activity, it would reduce the precipitation intensity and aerial coverage of storms.
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The weekend weather forecast.
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Detailed 7-Day Forecast
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The link above will take you to the National Weather Service forecast for the 12,000 foot level near Longs Peak. These forecasts are derived from computer-generated numerical forecasts, and are updated shortly after 3:30 am, 9:30 am, 3:30 pm, and 9:30 pm local time. In the lower right-hand corner of the page, one can view forecasts for other locations in the Park by clicking on the desired location in the terrain map.
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Do-It-Yourself Weather Forecast Links
The link above provides a list of web links to various sites containing a variety of meteorological data and information. Collectively, these resources can be used to monitor and study current weather conditions, as well short-term, medium-range, and climate forecasts
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