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Nov. 23rd Conditions Report |
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Up-to-date information by Eli Helmuth on climbing route and trail conditions in Rocky Mountain National Park and throughout the Estes Valley. Avalanche forecasts and skiing conditions in the alpine region are also reviewed.
Warning: Route conditions change constantly, especially in the mountains. Climbing is dangerous. Be flexible in your climbing plans and always prepare for the worst. Be experienced enough for what you are doing. Seek qualified instruction and use proper equipment. We accept no liability for your decisions in the peaks.
November 23rd, 2007
Despite the forecast of snow and wind in the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park for this holiday week, we have had relatively benign (though cold) conditions in the peaks as a result of this storm. At 10,000' throughout the alpine region, there were approx. 5-6 inches of fresh snow that fell late Tuesday night and as of today, there has not been any significant post-storm wind below treeline and so the new snow is still mostly sitting in the trees or on the ground where it landed three days ago.
New snow and 15F degree temperatures on the west slopes of the Twin Sisters on Thanksgiving
This is good news in regard to the current avalanche danger as with this amount of snow, the avalanche danger has only risen slightly so far. Strong winds were recorded at the higher elevations and so many slopes were scoured clean and loading did occur in the lee areas to reach critical amounts in many terrain configurations, especially those that are particularly avalanche prone such as the Lambslide Couloir, Tyndall and Ptarmagin Glaciers and the East Face of Notchtop which are all lee and steep aspects. Combined with enough wind to move this very lightweight material, which typically occurs post-storm in this region, we could have serious avalanche problems by the weekend - or not?
The East aspects of Mt. Meeker and Longs Peak from the Twin Sisters on Thanksgiving, 2007
A close-up of the Longs Peak Cirque - snowfall levels on the ground were minimal above 11,500' from the recent storm- likely a result of dryer snow and stronger winds which easily moved this low density material to the east and by blowing the new snow up into the atmosphere- as much as 50% of the new snow could have been re-absorbed (sublimated) back into the sky.
Temperatures at night have been falling down to single digits at 9,000' and have been staying well below freezing during the last few day so there has been little to no heat-related stabilization of the snowpack on warmer slopes. Although the new snowfall amounts were not equally distributed across the backcountry, the south-facing slopes in the Tyndall Gorge looked to have minimal new snow while the lower elevations around Estes Park looked to receive the highest totals from this brief snow shower. As Dan makes mention of in his weather report, warmer ground on certain slopes also resulted in quick consolidation and melting of the new snow even though temperatures at the time of the snowfall were in the single digits above 10,000' as we experienced a sudden (2 hr.) thirty degree drop in temperatures on the 20th as the first wave of this cold front hit the Front Range.
Climbing on warm, south-facing rock at 10,500' on Thanksgiving in 15-20F degree temp's
Despite the low to minimal winds down below treeline, there was enough wind on the afternoon and evening of the 21st and immediately after this storm to transport the very low density snow that had been deposited on the ground and the higher elevation barely kept any of their share of this storm snow. Wind gusts on Niwot ridge were recorded at 40mph during this post-storm wind and at tree-line elevations, winds were only half this amount or
As Dan Gottas has pointed out, studies have shown that during these windy and "relatively" dry events, as much as 30-50% of snow mass can be lost to sublimation which means that it is being re-abosrbed back into the atmosphere after being blown off the ground from the wind.
Avalanche danger has not increased significantly on Longs and Mt. Meeker from this storm due to minimal accumulations (1-3 inches). Further north in the park on the Mummy Range, the highest elevations were also minimally covered and as of Thanksgiving, Lumpy Ridge had mostly melted out due to the bright sunshine we experienced for the last two days. Temperatures look to come back up to "normal" or at least more friendly for the remainder of the week.
Sunrise on the east face of Notchtop on November 24th, 2007 Fresh avalanche debri and a large crown just below the summit cornice indicate very recent activity. Similar aspects should be treated suspect.
The ice in the mid-elevations (10-11,500') of the park that was wet and drippy for the last month has frozen hard from the quick freeze that saw a drop in temperatures at 10,000' from 30F lows to 0F low the last few days and the ice will likely be a bit brittle on the surface as a result of the stress related to this quick temperature change and so expect some dinner-plating on the ice surface. This would be an even better reason to avoid climbing below other parties or considering more carefully the position of the belay anchor to keep yourself out of harm's way as flying ice shrapnel is inevitable in this environment.
Dan "the weather man" enjoying some early season rock and frozen grass in the Loch Vale ice area
Now that the ice is "set-up" due to the current cold-snap, some areas such as the Loch Vale and "The Crypt", that were a bit too fragile to withstand a slew of climbers earlier this season, could be considered "open" as although the ice will keep growing for a while, it is less fragile now that we are in significantly colder temperatures. It is always considered better technique to use the picks and feet somewhat gently and additionally as a consideration of the climbing community to minimize the destruction that we can so quickly administer with poor or brutal technique.
A sunset view from the Helmuth home on Thanksgiving
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