PAST ICE CONDITIONS REPORTS - 2007/08 Winter 

(11/24 report) The Thanksgiving week brought a very sudden drop in temperatures (more than 30F) and a maximum new snowfall of a very quick 6 inches on the evening of the 20-21st  and with winds only at the higher elevations during and after the snowfall, there are now deposits of over a foot in many locations and much other terrain that has been wind scoured and is snow free.  Today in the Ptarmagin Drainage and on Notchtop, there were very sensitive drifts that had recently formed and I experienced some propagation of more than 3 meters in these reactive slabs that in most places were around 6 inches in thickness of medium-hard density. 

The wind has been blowing up to 30mph on the ridge crests and in the valleys above treeline for a couple of days, so transport has been substantial and the high, lee pockets especially will have CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger for some days to come.   The cornice formations above the east faces have also grown during this storm cycle and with warmer weather comes the threat that these somewhat unstable beasts could release into the climbing route.  The forecast currently is for more snow and high winds to come in this week and so possibly give the mountains another load of fresh white.

The ice formations will be helped on the warmer aspects early this week with temperatures forecast above 10,000 to rise above freezing for at least a couple of days.  Today on the 25th, temperatures at 9,000' have already reached 50F by 10am. 

Colder routes in locations such as the east face of Longs Peak are sublimating and the Smear of Fear has shrunk below a climbable level.  Likely, Alexander's Chimney will not grow any more ice this season.  This new snow will help the formation of Martha somewhat, but there is still minimal snow in the areas needed for formation of ice on this classic mid-winter alpine route.

(11/19) There has been little change in the last week in the high country of Rocky Mountain National Park as no new precipitation and daily high's well above freezing at 10,000' have kept ice conditions moving along the same trends.  These conditions have kept the water flowing in certain spots but dry in others where there is no snow to melt then freeze into an ice route.  The Loch Vale continues to grow as does All MIxed Up on Thatchtop Mountain and the Hot Doggie on Notchtop Mountain.  Other areas are sublimating, especially with the low humidity and windy nights up high.  Routes such as the Smear of Fear and Deep Freeze are being re-absorbed back into the atmosphere quicker than they can grow and a lack of snow up high is not helping their growth. 

Significant change is on the way as of tomorrow and today looks to be the last of our super-prolonged "Indian Summer" which has amazingly stuck around until this Thanksgiving week -  it has been a great extension of our normally brief summer season!  The storm that is forecast to start tomorrow and last for the remainder of this week through the weekend could give us high's in the mountain's in the teens which would be an approximately 30 degree drop in temperatures in a very short period.  This should freeze the ice routes pretty well and with the ground very warm at the moment, this quick freeze combined with some new moisture could turn the park into an "ice castle" for a few days or more and south-facing aspects could benefit most from this turn of weather events. 

As well, the avalanche danger could increase significantly during and after this storm due to forecast new snow along with high winds and the current avalanche danger ratings in place for the high country of RMNP could be changing by the hour as this forecast storm leaves it's mark on the alpine landscape.  Routes such as the East Face of Thatchtop and areas like the Lambslide Couloir (steep and lee) could attain HIGH avalanche danger (natural and human triggered avalanches likely) as a result of new snow which will be settling on a very weak base layer that in many places is primarily composed of large faceted snow grains from the ground to the surface of the snowpack.  This early season set-up of a strong on top of weak layered snowpack has been the source of numerous avalanche fatalities in Colorado in the past- often near the end of November.   Please don't become another avalanche statistic by wandering into a very dangerous situation this holiday week.  Today or tomorrow morning could be the last safe-enough day for an ascent of the East Face of Thatchtop so if you were waiting, it could be too late for this year?  After all, timing is often the key to safety and success in the alpine environment and we've had weeks of perfect "IN" conditions on this typically "OUT" of shape route.

On (11/13) in the Loch Vale everything was dripping in part due to the cloudy nights which have cut-off the long-wave radiation loss and helped keep conditions up high relatively "warm" despite Estes Valley temperatures just below freezing at night.  The new snow fall today was light in RMNP and no more than a 1/2 inch was deposited in the deepest spots, primarily Hallett Peak.  The ice continues to grow in many locations so the good news is that the year is shaping up to be a good one...the key is patience for the moment while things really freeze solid.

If we get some clear and colder weather here soon, more than a few great routes could come into shape.  South-facing slopes may have some quick freezing routes and the other dripping clefts at the moment could freeze quick into climbable shape.  The Smear of Fear continues to sublimate and there has not been enough snow in many spots to feed a melt-off into freeze-on type action which can be key to the formation of many of the higher alpine routes such as Vanquished, Alexander's, and the Smear of Fear and some of the lower elevation routes such as Hallett Chimney and the Squid.  The snowpack continues to weaken due to the continued faceting which has been the prevalent metamorphic action of the last month but the overall Avalanche Danger has not changed in the last week.  We have had mostly calm days in the high peaks which has made it very pleasant and conducive to hanging-out on the cliffs.

On (11/ 7)  All Mixed Up it was the best I've ever seen it in terms of amount and quality of the ice and although it has seen a couple of ascents thus far, the ice is super fresh and makes for a somewhat "virgin ascent" in that there are no footholds or pick holes yet carved out in the ice.  And with at least two other variations besides the main flow, there should be plenty of room here for a couple of competent parties.  It's never a bad idea on this wall to carry a few camalots and I found for both lead protection and belay anchors that camalot sizes  C3 # 2, and C4  .3 .4, .5 and .75 were exactly what  I needed.  Everything was well frozen and we used our down belay jackets for most of the day as the route is only briefly in the sun.

A guide who was up on the East Face of Notchtop today said it was in the best shape he'd ever seen it and that a rack of screws and similar rack of cams to what I used on AMU was perfect for that route as well.  The snow in both locations is already very faceted due to the dry, cold temp's at night so snow pickets would be worthless anywhere in the hills at the moment.  

(11/05) The current weather trend seems to be very favorable in regard to ice growth and today in the Loch Vale (northeast aspect of Thatchtop) we were amazed by the quantity and quality of ice that is in the growth stage there.   I emphasize growth, because this area more than most gets a lot of traffic and the ice is so soft and wet at the moment, that any damage in this crucial stage will have lasting effects into the winter.  So it is best to leave it alone for at least a month and by early December this spot will have a plethora of quality routes for the remainder of the winter.  I will be up on "All Mixed Up" on the other side (east) of Thatchtop on Wednesday and will report back conditions but from a distance it looks fantastic with numerous route options and combinations. 

The continued heat wave has helped stabilize the snowpack somewhat, although cold and dry nights will lead to the formation of basal facets (depth hoar) which could be a potential issue in this early winter.  The winds have been overall low the last three days with clear skies at night.  As a result, the snowpack is simultaneously melting off of south aspects, faceting on north aspects, being blown completely off of the west aspects and being deposited on the east aspects.  So there is a wide range of snow conditions in the backcountry.  The avalanche danger in most locations has been reduced to MODERATE until new moisture or some other environmental factor arrives.   There are still pockets of CONSIDERABLE risk on the above treeline slopes over 30 degree angle that are southeast, east, and northeast aspects such as the Tyndall, Ptarmagin, and Taylor glaciers.  

(11/2) On Alexander's Chimney we had a perfect weather day- cold but completely calm and not another soul in sight on a Friday.  Ed Havranek and I climbed 4 pitches on AC with a delicate column of WI4 on pitch 2 and the "chockstone pitch" as the cruxes.  The chockstone protects very well on dry rock above an ice flow at M4 (5.8).  We beefed up all of the rappel anchors with new cordage, webbing, metal links and a new nut on one.  The "ramp pitch" which would have been our fifth was a big too thin (1/2") for climbing today, especially as the ramp doesn't take much (or any?) protection.  There are other ways to get up to Broadway from there that would be easier and mostly rock at the moment.  The Smear was shrinking since last visit, Crazy Train growing, Martha still dry (wait until January), and the Flying Dutchman was IN.   Lambslide had 1-2 feet of snow with some patches of exposed ice and with CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger.  

(10/31) On Flattop Mountain we had a decent look around the park between waves of cloud and snow.  Rime ice was forming on the more exposed surfaces above 12,000' and 3-4 inches of new precipitation has fallen today at altitudes above 10,000' throughout Rocky Mountain National Park.  The winds were blowing around 20mph at the 12,000' elevation and starting to transport  the new snow while exposing firm sustrugi snow and water ice left behind from the hurricane force winds of 10/20 and the subsequent heat wave.  Snowshoes made the way easier and skis would have been wrecked from the exposed rocks.

The south-facing ice routes were again shaping-up best  and although the Guide's Wall above Lake Helene was a bit thin, the complete vertical shaft of Hot Doggie was visible from 1,500' above and a mile away so it might be worth checking out for those looking and able to safely repeat this Jeff Lowe testpiece.  The ice on the East Face of Notchtop also looked great from afar and reports are in that this very classic RMNP snow and ice route (Grade 3) is in excellent shape.  Although cornice formation above this route is still minimal, we did walk around a sizable cornice at the top of the Corral Couloir on the south face of Hallett- there will be a photo of it in the weekly conditions report.  The Couloir was starting to fill-in and with that large of a cornice above,  it's pretty obvious that this a very lee-loaded gash.

Avalanche danger has overall increased due to the new snow and strong enough winds which  have transported it into "pockets of greater danger" on the primarily easterly aspects which include the Lambslide Couloir where sloughing off the cliffs combined with wind loading could have deposited up to a foot of new material.  Avalanche danger therefore has increased primarily in these southeast, east, and northeast aspects above treeline where significant loading could occur.