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Feb. 6th Conditions Report |
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Up-to-date information by Eli Helmuth on climbing route and trail conditions in Rocky Mountain National Park and throughout the Estes Valley of Colorado. Avalanche forecasts and skiing conditions in the alpine region are also reviewed.
Warning: Route conditions change constantly, especially in the mountains. Climbing is dangerous. Be flexible in your climbing plans and always prepare for the worst. Be experienced enough for what you are doing. Seek qualified instruction and use proper equipment. We accept no liability for your decisions in the peaks.
February 6th, 2008

The Dragontai Couloir on the south side of Flattop Mountain on Feb. 5th, 2008
The cold weather regime of the last month continued through this weekend and as of today includes sustained winds in the high country in the 50-70 mph range that will combine with more new snow to give us a big spike in avalanche danger in the coming days. The upcoming weekend's heat wave has been downgraded to the lower 40's in Estes and unless the sun is out in force, it will likely feel and be very much a winter wonderland up high in the valleys and peaks of Rocky Mountain National Park.

Looking across the "Terrain Park" towards the north ridge and west face of Longs Peak on 2/2/08
Winds have been low to moderate around the Continental Divide for almost a week which has made for excellent skiing and climbing conditions and until today the peaks had a mantle of fresh snow covering even their steepest flanks. The Estes Valley received 2-3 inches of new snow on the 4th and above 10,000' on the east side of the divide, snowfall totals are variable, but loaded slopes are between 6 and 8 feet deep in the 10 to 12,000' elevation range.
Lumpy Ridge in the morning sun on Feb. 5th, 2008
Slopes at and above treeline have received up to a meter of new snow in the last week and so another thick and weak layer has been added to a highly variable snowpack. Following the wind storm that is currently scouring the peaks, there will likely be even deeper deposits in spots and many other areas will be blasted free of any residual snow. The more exposed locations such as the north and west faces of Longs, Flattop Mountain and other similar terrain will again be mostly snow-free due to the wind transport which will result in sublimation (return to the atmosphere) of much of the above treeline snowpack that arrived in the last week.

The top of the Otis Couloir being wind loaded on Jan. 28th
Trails have been constantly filled-in this week with about 2 feet of snow falling on Dream Lake (10,000') in the last 7 days with constant snow showers on either side of the windier Feb. 2nd storm. Skiing conditions have been superb this entire week with the combination of new, 7% density snow and little wind has been ideal. Avalanche danger has thus far been limited to the more prone areas where steep terrain lends to sluff avalanches and natural releases of soft slabs which have been occurring regularly while the snow has been falling or the wind blowing.
Joanne Helmuth on her due date (still waiting) and out for a wallow to Emerald Lake in 10" of new snow
Ski cutting on steeper terrain (45 degree) done in RMNP last weekend was successful in releasing soft slab avalanches composed of new snow that was deposited in a somewhat cohesive slab approx. 40cm (18") deep. Overall, the snowpack on the east side of RMNP has not been very reactive this winter and very few signs of slab avalanche activity have been recorded. The wind has likely been a (positive) factor in this equation as overall we have a very weak snowpack on many slopes on all aspects due to the extra- cold weather regime that we have been under for the last month.
A snow pit profile of the upper 2 meters of the snowpack between the regularly sluffing couloirs on either side of the Dragontail Ridge. The apron between these couloirs is a regularly visited ski destination despite the close proximity to active avalanche terrain due to its often great snow, a spectacular setting and well-supported slopes.
Despite this weak snowpack of mostly faceted grains, there is little to no strong layering currently present; bottomless facets compose much of this mid-elevation snowpack and without strong over weak, you don't have much of a problem. As a result, there have been no known slab releases on depth hoar or in the mid-snowpack on the east side of RMNP, at or below treeline elevations thus far this season. Where the wind has had an effect on the snowpack (sometimes well-below treeline) the slabs are relatively hard in the mid-snowpack and this is a thick and strong layer that is holding steady on well-supported slopes.
Steve Klein learning the ropes on an FA of "Summit Fever", a three pitch line of M1 and WI-1 just around the corner from the famed Jaws in the Fern Canyon of the Odessa Gorge
The previously snow covered terrain above treeline at the beginning of this week, places such as the Boulderfield and Flattop Mountain will likely be dry as a result of the current windstorm and so terrain at treeline will be wind hardened and sculpted into snow dunes and cruel waves of sastrugi. Some of the last week's new snow will survive this pounding and end up in the trees somewhere to the east where the rocks will be even better covered and the chance for soft, deep turns the best.
A view from Nymph Lake of the Terrain Park where much of the treeline skiing in RMNP is concentrated as well as the ice crag "Olympic Games" circled in red. The Haiyaha trail from Dream Lake is above in green with common descents in blue (no snowshoes, please) and the lower trails from Nymph in green.
Trails are firm when you are on them but due to daily and often hourly wind drifting, below treeline trails can be covered with 6-10 inches of soft snow and if you can stay on the track, flotation is not necessary for closer and more popular locations such as Hidden Falls or Emerald Lake. Other more off-trail locations such as All Mixed Up, which currently has CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger, may require snowshoes for the lower parts of the approach where drifting can be severe and in these spots, more than a meter of (recycled) snow has been deposited in the last week.
The last part of the approach trail to Chasm Lake below Longs Peak is still being loaded with more snow cover than usual this year due to lee drifting and the avalanche danger here is rated CONSIDERABLE due to the slab potential that exists in this specific location. Other, similar drifted-in and steep terrain should be considered suspect on all aspects above or near treeline, especially on bigger slopes and where terrain traps exist such as in river drainages or above cliffs.

A small group of elk foraging for supper in the Moraine Park of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado
If you are interested in a training program in any or all of the climbing and skiing arts, please feel free to contact me at
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to discuss the complete range of techniques practice and itineraries that might best meet your climbing or ski mountaineering goals.
Best of luck with all of your backcountry plans this week!
| North American avalanche Danger Scale |
Danger Level
(& Color) |
Avalanche Probability and Avalanche Trigger |
Degree and Distribution of Avalanche Danger |
Recommended Action
in the Backcountry |
| ...WHAT... |
...WHY... |
...WHERE... |
...WHAT TO DO... |
LOW(GREEN) |
Natural avalanches very unlikely. Human triggered avalanches unlikely |
Generally stable snow. Isolated areas of instability. |
Travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised. |
|
MODERATE
(YELLOW) |
Natural avalanches unlikely. Human triggered avalanches possible. |
Unstable slabs possible on steep terrain. |
Use caution in steeper terrain on certain aspects (defined in accompanying statement). |
|
CONSIDERABLE
(ORANGE) |
Natural avalanches possible. Human triggered avalanches probable. |
Unstable slabs probable on steep terrain. |
Be increasingly cautious in steeper terrain. |
HIGH
(RED) |
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely. |
Unstable slabs likely on a variety of aspects and slope angles. |
Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Safest travel on windward ridges of lower angle slopes without steeper terrain above. |
EXTREME
(BLACK) |
Widespread natural or human triggered avalanches certain. |
Extremely unstable slabs certain on most aspects and slope angles. Large, destructive avalanches possible. |
Travel in avalanche terrain should be avoided and travel confined to low angle terrain well away from avalanche path run-outs. |
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